Predictions 2026: Three ways government tech will surprise us this year

As the government closes the book on another year of tech upheaval, it’s worth remembering that trends rarely unfold in straight lines. Some evolve slowly until they explode, others quietly creep into operations until one day everyone wonders how they ever lived without them. In 2026, we’re likely to see three such developments in federal technology. One seems obvious until it isn’t. One finally gets measured the way leaders say they want it. And one will quietly become the backbone of how government tests risk before anything new ever sees daylight.

Now, it’s worth noting that my 2025 predictions were pretty big swings, as were the ones the year before. But 2026 is probably not going to be a year of dramatic breakthroughs. Instead, we will see many of the innovations of previous years finally making inroads into government service. Specifically, AI will no longer be a novelty, zero trust won’t be an aspiration and simulations will evolve beyond just something that is nice to have.

And while there will surely be missteps and overzealous experiments along the way, the direction of travel for government tech is unmistakable: more automation, more measurement, more rehearsal before commitment and, most importantly, more clarity on how technology actually serves government missions.

Prediction 1: AI will become everyone’s most promoted intern, and no one will fully understand what it does

In 2025, federal agencies reported more than 1,700 AI use cases across government, more than double the year before, with agencies using machine learning and generative AI in everything from administrative tasks to mission-critical functions.

But in 2026, don’t be surprised when “AI assisted this” becomes a standard footnote in everything the government does, from budget documents to strategy memos. And not because some office will finally master AI governance, but because it will be easier to point at AI when something works (or maybe doesn’t).

Federal workers will joke that AI is the ultimate intern: always willing to pitch in with summarizing, tagging, scheduling or coding tasks. But just like a real intern that gets handed every task that no one else wants, no one will quite be able to explain how it did what it did. Agencies are already creating shared AI platforms like USAi to give employees secure ways to experiment with multiple models from commercial vendors without exposing sensitive data.

By year’s end, AI will be everywhere, and policy teams will be drafting flowcharts that explain why AI was involved in a decision, even if how it got there remains mysterious. The “AI intern” won’t replace federal workers, but it will transform what work means in government, from clerical drudgery to oversight and validation.

Prediction 2: Zero trust will finally evolve from a checklist to a scorecard

Cybersecurity leaders have talked about zero trust for years, and by 2025 most civilian and defense agencies had published at least a plan or maturity model for implementation. But in 2026 the focus will shift from whether agencies have zero trust frameworks to how well those frameworks actually reduce risk in measurable ways.

Instead of tick-the-box audits, leaders will want to see metrics showing reduced lateral movement, fewer successful phishing attempts and faster anomaly detection. Cyber defenders are already experimenting with digital twin environments to simulate threats and test zero trust policies before they hit real systems, a practice that brings theory into practical measurement. 

In other words, expect agencies to measure zero trust the way they do budgets and performance: with dashboards, trend lines and outcomes. This will force agencies to start tying zero trust maturity to actual security benchmarks and mission outcomes rather than internal compliance checklists.

It’s a shift that’s overdue, especially as adversaries continue to probe networks and the line between theory and practice becomes ever more visible. Tracking and quantifying impact will finally bring zero trust into its own as a government cyber scorecard metric rather than a compliance badge.

Prediction 3: Simulate first becomes government’s default risk strategy

Simulation is already transforming how government prepares for difficult and dangerous decisions. From VR training for government jobs to cyber ranges for national security teams and drone simulators for battlefield pilots, agencies are increasingly testing first in virtual environments before real resources are committed.

In 2026, simulations will become the government’s accepted first filter for the deployment of any mission-critical system or policy. Don’t think of it as the gamification of government work, as that is a slightly different use case. Instead, simulations will model real world environments, even in areas where they have not normally reached. For example, before an agency spends millions on hardware, launches a new service or stands up a novel AI workflow, they will run it through a digital twin environment or simulated range to identify risks, measure behavior and validate controls before anyone’s real data, infrastructure or reputation is on the line.

This will reach beyond defense and cybersecurity. Expect simulations to be used for disaster response planning, AI governance policy trials, supply chain contingency exercises and public service redesign pilots. Like a dress rehearsal for government itself, simulation technology will force agencies to fail fast, learn faster and only scale what proves its resiliency in the virtual world.

2026 is when technology stops becoming the headline

Taken together, these predictions don’t point to a year of flashy breakthroughs or dramatic reinvention. Instead, 2026 looks like a year when government technology settles into its next phase of maturity. AI becomes a routine part of daily work, zero trust finally gets judged by results and simulations move from novelty to necessity. 

None of that will generate much hype, but it will quietly change how agencies make decisions, manage risk and deliver services. And in government, the most meaningful technology shifts are often the ones that work so well they stop being remarkable at all.

John Breeden II is an award-winning journalist and reviewer with over 20 years of experience covering technology. He is the CEO of the Tech Writers Bureau, a group that creates technological thought leadership content for organizations of all sizes. Twitter: @LabGuys