Commenters largely oppose 2030 Census overhaul, analysis finds

Advocacy groups in the federal data, local government, public health and other spaces largely urged the Census Bureau to reject a sweeping overhaul of the 2030 Census in comments that were due yesterday.

The draft overhaul would eliminate questions about race, ethnicity and sexual orientation on short-form census documents and other questionnaires, if finalized. It would also no longer count undocumented immigrants and immigrants who are legally in the U.S. but are not lawful permanent residents toward the apportionment of the House of Representatives. 

Of 126,120 published comments on Regulations.gov as of Tuesday morning, 112,178 — or 89% — oppose the draft rule, according to an analysis from pop-up consortium Hands Off Our Census. Most of the remaining comments supported the draft rule, although a small number — 577 — were categorized as neither.

The proposal to remove certain immigrants from population counts was the most frequently discussed topic in opposing comments. The next most discussed topics were apportionment and redistricting effects, the removal of race and ethnicity data and constitutional concerns, the analysis found.

The findings stem from an open-source tool that uses a large language model-based process, traditional statistical methods and human oversight to categorize draft comments, Chris Marcum, Federation of American Scientists senior federal data policy advisor, told Nextgov/FCW. Humans audited an initial model and a “second, more sophisticated” model, which was used when the first one struggled to categorize comments, he added. 

Hands Off Our Census is a project of dataindex.us, FAS Data Policy Institute, American Statistical Association and dozens of other groups. The project circulated a comment template urging the Census Bureau to extend a comment period from Nov. 2 to Dec. 10, and to abandon provisions around excluding certain immigrants from counts and removing demographic questions.

Comments reveal why specific groups oppose the draft Census overhaul.

“Excluding immigrants from the decennial census count and eliminating race and ethnicity data would make it much more difficult to identify and address community needs,” Anthony Wright, executive director of nonprofit Families USA, said in a press release.

The release said that, if proposed changes are finalized, states could lose Medicaid funding because excluding immigrants from population counts could “artificially increase” a state’s calculated per capita income. Researchers and public health agencies would lose race and ethnicity data that helps measure inequities, target interventions and evaluate policies, it added.

The National League of Cities, United States Conference of Mayors and the International City/County Management Association called for the withdrawal of the rule in a joint comment letter.

The letter warns that proposed changes would harm local governments’ ability to manage services and alter federal funding local governments receive.

“Complete and holistic census data is critical for local leaders in helping make decisions about public safety, housing, transportation and other core services,” Clarence Anthony, CEO and executive director of the National League of Cities, said in a press release.