Delay of weather satellite launch causes concern about future forecasts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has pushed back the launch date for the first of several satellites that will provide better long-range weather forecasting, increasing the chance the agency will not be able to replace in time aging satellites it now uses to forecast weather.

NOAA says it plans to launch the first of several next-generation polar-orbiting satellites in 2014, a year later than the agency's last announced delay. The original launch date was scheduled for 2009.

Polar-orbiting satellites circle the Earth, capturing weather and environmental information. The new satellites, which are part of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), will provide global weather coverage and better resolution than existing ones.

Ronald McPherson, whose 40-years career at NOAA included a stint as deputy director of the National Weather Service, said the delay in the launch of the polar-orbiting satellites raises "serious concerns" about the program and the consequences caused by the delay. NOAA operates three polar-orbiting satellites to forecast weather, which allow it and weather companies such as AccuWeather to issue forecasts of 15 or more days.

NOAA estimates the current satellites will continue to operate until 2014, according to McPherson, who is now executive director emeritus of the American Metrological Society. But "that [timeline] is beyond their design life," he added. If existing satellites fail, McPherson said meteorologists would be able to make only three-day forecasts.

The national polar-orbiting operational project, a partnership of NOAA, NASA and the Defense Department which NOAA manages, has experienced cost increases, schedule delays and serious technical problems since it was conceived in 1994, the Government Accountability Office reported in June 2008. GAO said program costs had almost doubled to $12.5 billion from an original estimate of $6.5 billion, and the launch date of the first satellite was planned for 2013, with the second following in 2016.

John Leslie, a NOAA spokesman, said the launch date for the first satellite has slipped to 2014 with the second is still scheduled for 2016.

NOAA also has pushed back the launch of a test satellite, the NPOESS Preparatory Project, from 2010 to 2011. The satellite will carry the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite sensor package, which will be used for long-range weather forecasting.

Northrop Grumman Corp. is the prime contractor for NPOESS, but Congress said in its report on the 2009 Omnibus Appropriations Bill that the sensor package, which Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems developed, "has consistently caused major delays and cost overruns to the NPOESS program."

Conrad Lautenbacher, head of NOAA and undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere, blasted Raytheon in January. "The contractor's lack of progress on fixing several technical issues is unacceptable and has resulted in significant delays to the original VIIRS planned delivery," he said.

VIIRS is entering the final stage of environmental testing and has been performing as expected, said John Barksdale, a Raytheon spokesman. The program is on track to deliver the VIIRS instrument this fall, within the current government projection.