Kosovo to the rescue

Last year Hurricane Bonnie provided Congress and the president with a legislative solution to the fiscal 1999 budget bind they were facing. This year it could be the man-made disaster in Kosovo rather than a natural disaster that provides the same opportunity.

Invoking the special exception allowed by the budget rules for "emergencies" meant that the cap on fiscal 1999 appropriations could be exceeded. Congress and the White House both took advantage of the opportunity to enact more spending than would have otherwise been allowed, and ended the confrontation that was brewing. Congress got to go home to campaign and avoided a government shutdown, Republicans got more military spending and the White House got much of what it wanted in terms of program funding.

We already know that this year's confrontation will be even tougher. The fiscal 2000 caps are tighter, the Republican House majority is smaller and the demands for more spending are broader.

Add to this the generally acknowledged facts that the GOP base was greatly angered by last year's emergency spending bill (Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., may have lost his job because of it) and that congressional Republicans have made not raising the caps a key part of their fiscal 2000 budget plan, and it is easy to understand why this year's appropriations disputes will be so much harder to resolve.

That is where Kosovo comes in. Even though some U.S. military action seems to happen somewhere every year, the Pentagon does not assume it will become engaged in an situation like this when it puts together its budget. As a result, no funds were included in the fiscal 1999 defense appropriation for "contingencies" and there is no budget for the Kosovo activities.

As the fighting continues and the size of the U.S. commitment grows, it will become increasingly likely that current funds cannot be shifted from other accounts to pay for the costs, so an "emergency" appropriation will be needed. As was the case with the Bonnie bill, this legislation could then become a potential vehicle for the unrelated domestic and defense program increases that threaten the rest of this year's budget debate.

It will not, of course, be that simple. It is not clear whether Republican vows to keep the caps extends to gimmicks and loopholes (like the emergency exception) that will allow them to be circumvented. It is also not clear whether the votes exist this year to use the emergency exception as flagrantly as it was used last year. The negative reaction by Republican voters to last year's legislation may make some GOP representatives shy about voting for a follow-up bill.

One way out of this tight spot might be for Congress to immediately pass an emergency supplemental appropriation with fiscal 1999 funding for some of the domestic and defense increases being sought for fiscal 2000. This would provide additional funds this year and take off some of the pressure next year. This would make it easier to maintain the fiscal 2000 limits and so make it more likely that Congress would be able to keep its pledge not to raise the caps.

All of this, however, puts the leadership in a very tough spot. Do they push their colleagues now to take advantage of the Kosovo budget opportunity because it may be the best way out of the appropriations dilemma? Or do they pass in the hope that something else will work out later in the year?

The Budget Countdown

With Congress in recess until next week, as of today there are only four potential legislative days left before the April 15 statutory deadline for passage of the fiscal 2000 congressional budget resolution. If Monday and Fridays, when the House and Senate typically are not in session, are excluded, there are only three days.

Question Of The Week

Last Week's Question. Leon Panetta was the last U.S. representative or senator to serve as director of the Office of Management and Budget. The winner of an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt, who was selected by random drawing from the large number of correct responses, was Joe Luchok, a communications specialist with the American Accreditation Health Care Commission/URAC.

This Week's Question. There has been a great deal of talk recently about Congress waiting for the Congressional Budget Office to update its budget forecast so that a higher-than-expected surplus can be used to offset a tax cut. When is CBO legally required to release its updated projections? Send your answer to scollender@njdc.com and you might be wearing an "I Won A Budget Battle" T-shirt as you file your tax returns on April 15. If there is more than one correct response the winner will be selected by a random drawing.