recommended reading

We've Been Looking at the Spread of Global Pandemics All Wrong

tavi/Shutterstock.com

Five hundred years ago, the spread of disease was largely constrained by the main mode of transportation of the time: people traveling on foot. An outbreak in one town would slowly ripple outward with a pattern similar to what occurs when a rock drops onto a surface of still water. The Black Death moved across 14th century Europe in much this way, like concentric waves unfurling across the continent.

Today, disease migrates across populations and geography with a curiously different pattern. In 2003, SARS first appeared in China, then spread to Hong Kong, then turned up from there in Europe, Canada and the United States. Plot the spread of the disease on a map of the world, and its movement looks downright random.

What has changed dramatically in the intervening centuries is not necessarily the diseases themselves, but human mobility networks. Dirk Brockmann, a theoretical physicist and professor of complex systems at Northwestern University, has long been interested in how evolving modes of long-distance transportation have changed many things: disease dynamics, the spread of information, the transport of species from one ecosystem to others where they don’t belong.

For about a decade, Brockmann and other researchers have been incorporating real datasets on the world air-transport network into models of disease dynamics. They can simulate an outbreak in one location and estimate its arrival in another. But early on, Brockmann noticed that models created by him and other colleagues often produced strikingly similar results, even with simulations built on different assumptions about infection rates, disease dynamics, seasonality, or the age structure of infected populations.

Read more at The Atlantic Cities.

(Image via tavi/Shutterstock.com)

Threatwatch Alert

Stolen laptop

Wireless Heart Monitor Maker to Pay $2.5M Settlement to HHS After Laptop Stolen

See threatwatch report

JOIN THE DISCUSSION

Close [ x ] More from Nextgov
 
 

Thank you for subscribing to newsletters from Nextgov.com.
We think these reports might interest you:

  • Modernizing IT for Mission Success

    Surveying Federal and Defense Leaders on Priorities and Challenges at the Tactical Edge

    Download
  • Communicating Innovation in Federal Government

    Federal Government spending on ‘obsolete technology’ continues to increase. Supporting the twin pillars of improved digital service delivery for citizens on the one hand, and the increasingly optimized and flexible working practices for federal employees on the other, are neither easy nor inexpensive tasks. This whitepaper explores how federal agencies can leverage the value of existing agency technology assets while offering IT leaders the ability to implement the kind of employee productivity, citizen service improvements and security demanded by federal oversight.

    Download
  • Effective Ransomware Response

    This whitepaper provides an overview and understanding of ransomware and how to successfully combat it.

    Download
  • Forecasting Cloud's Future

    Conversations with Federal, State, and Local Technology Leaders on Cloud-Driven Digital Transformation

    Download
  • IT Transformation Trends: Flash Storage as a Strategic IT Asset

    MIT Technology Review: Flash Storage As a Strategic IT Asset For the first time in decades, IT leaders now consider all-flash storage as a strategic IT asset. IT has become a new operating model that enables self-service with high performance, density and resiliency. It also offers the self-service agility of the public cloud combined with the security, performance, and cost-effectiveness of a private cloud. Download this MIT Technology Review paper to learn more about how all-flash storage is transforming the data center.

    Download

When you download a report, your information may be shared with the underwriters of that document.